Saturday, 21 June 2014

Western States Predictions Based on Strava Vert



Like a lot of other runners, I like Strava and the stats it produces. So, for the Bay Area guys with a shot at top 10 (mainly based in Mill Valley), who did the most vert and mileage in their build up to WS100? I guarantee there's little relationship between this and where they actually finish, but I thought I'd have a look anyway. So this is a prediction that's certain to be inaccurate (except through fluke)...so I suppose it's not that different from most predictions out there.

These figures are year-to-date up to the morning of Sat 6/21, a week before race day and only include runs with GPS data for the vert in Strava. They don't allow for a million things that will affect performance on the day, not least periods of injury (like Matt, Jorge and Chikara have had recently).

Dylan Bowman - 316,693ft over 1,695.4 miles

Ian Sharman - 247,379ft over 1,817.8 miles

Alex Varner - 234,770ft over 2,103.9 miles

Gary Gellin - 200,686ft over 1,205.1 miles

Brett Rivers - 185,387ft over 1,207.5 miles

Matt Laye - 145,627ft over 1,269.9 miles

Jorge Maravilla - 107,359ft over 641.9 miles

Chikara Omine - 90,558ft over 1,249.4 miles

In summary, DBo will win the Bay area face-off. Or not. These stats just pique my interest since fitness is only about 50% of the battle on race day and training quantity isn't the same as quality. These guys all know what they're doing and I hope they all have great races (just maybe a tad slower than my race, ideally).

Also, here's what the WS100 race course looks like on Strava.

9 comments:

  1. Haha! I think my Strava data is ~30k' short due to no GPS at Transgrancanaria and a satellite fail at TNFNY. The bay area face off will be an interesting race within the race :). I highly doubt I'll win it. See you soon!

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  2. Dylan, I did wonder why your stats weren't bigger - both you and Jorge are including stealth training as well as Strava...but I can play that game too. I've done a whopping 4k of vert on the treadmill in the past couple of weeks plus 1 Diablo summit without a watch :)

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  3. Don't mind me down here in LA.. 423,189ft. in 2,188 miles. BRING IT SHREDBO!

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  4. I am not an expert or claim to be, but in my opinion, a better indication is the VAM (vertical ascent speed) number for a segment of a climb rather than total vert on Strava...but not to predict a race, because anything can happen with all the other variables! :-) For kicks, in Suunto's Move files, it has a VAM measurement i.e. for Kilian's ascents and it's incredible to see the ascent speed on a certain elevation, altitude and grade.

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