Saturday, 21 June 2014
Western States Predictions Based on Strava Vert
Like a lot of other runners, I like Strava and the stats it produces. So, for the Bay Area guys with a shot at top 10 (mainly based in Mill Valley), who did the most vert and mileage in their build up to WS100? I guarantee there's little relationship between this and where they actually finish, but I thought I'd have a look anyway. So this is a prediction that's certain to be inaccurate (except through fluke)...so I suppose it's not that different from most predictions out there.
These figures are year-to-date up to the morning of Sat 6/21, a week before race day and only include runs with GPS data for the vert in Strava. They don't allow for a million things that will affect performance on the day, not least periods of injury (like Matt, Jorge and Chikara have had recently).
Dylan Bowman - 316,693ft over 1,695.4 miles
Ian Sharman - 247,379ft over 1,817.8 miles
Alex Varner - 234,770ft over 2,103.9 miles
Gary Gellin - 200,686ft over 1,205.1 miles
Brett Rivers - 185,387ft over 1,207.5 miles
Matt Laye - 145,627ft over 1,269.9 miles
Jorge Maravilla - 107,359ft over 641.9 miles
Chikara Omine - 90,558ft over 1,249.4 miles
In summary, DBo will win the Bay area face-off. Or not. These stats just pique my interest since fitness is only about 50% of the battle on race day and training quantity isn't the same as quality. These guys all know what they're doing and I hope they all have great races (just maybe a tad slower than my race, ideally).
Also, here's what the WS100 race course looks like on Strava.