Showing posts with label Mountains. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mountains. Show all posts

Wednesday, 11 December 2013

Skyrunning etc - a general update

Downhill running fun (although this was last year at Crate Lake)


I've been working hard in recent weeks to bring together the inaugural US Skyrunning Series and am really happy with the races I've been able to join together across the country. This is now up and running at this website although the races themselves don't all have websites with full details and are not necessarily open for registration yet.

In the background I was also training to lower my marathon time after the slower running through the summer. I've always enjoyed all forms of running and come from a background of ball sports so it's only more recently that I stopped sprinting everywhere and started endurance running. Roads, trails, mountains, deserts, jungles - they all appeal to me - and if I stick to just one I miss the others. I'll admit that I have the most fun running when flying down the side of a mountain on technical trails, but it was good to get back into road running again too.

I decided to run the net downhill Tucson Marathon in Arizona, starting at 4,800ft and ending at 3,000ft, hoping I'd be able to cheat my way to a faster time. However, a combination of a lot of travel (including to The Running Event in Austin, TX, for Scott Running which was extremely interesting), some overly hard (but fun) runs and a headwind on the (surprisingly) rolling course meant I was well off my target. In the training I included some hard downhill sessions on Mt Diablo to really hammer my legs and these led to some painful sports massages! I did manage to destroy my 5k, 10k, 10 mile and half marathon bests on Diablo so was optimistic about Tucson. I felt relatively ok doing a 29:40 10k but the 48:51 10-miler was one of the hardest runs I've ever done. I wish I could hit those kind of paces on the flat and have even more respect for the Olympians who cruise at these speeds.

Tucson started with a fast downhill mile with the wind in 5:11 but then turned into the wind and things just got worse from there, holding on to a 2:37:03 with a poor positive split of 1:17/1:20. I usually consider anything over 1 minute slow down to be a race that was screwed up. However, it was my fastest marathon of the year and gives me confidence that the Grand Slam didn't break me!

So onwards to next year with just the Walnut Creek Half Marathon this weekend on my doorstep before some snowy running in Oregon over Christmas. I'm planning on including a couple of articles about Grand Slam and Leadville training before the end of the year so will post them when I get around to it.

Hope everyone has a great Christmas or whatever festivities you're celebrating. 2013 was very memorable for me and I can't believe how much happening in the sport in general. It's an exciting time to be an ultrarunner.

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

2012 In Pictures

2012 was a fun year for me and before I get into 2013 (am currently having a bit of a rest and dealing with a knee issue from Desert Solstice that I probably shouldn't have run on at Across the Years 24 hour) I wanted to reminisce, in roughly reverse order. It's mainly the people that made it so enjoyable but I'm thankful to have seen so many beautiful places.

Running and walking through Across The Years 24 Hour  with Dave James and Mike Arnstein. Photo: Aravaipa Running

Jon Olsen and Mike Arnstein running sub 13hr 100 milers at Desert Solstice . Photo: Aravaipa Running

The day before JFK50 on a run with CR holders Max King and Ellie Greenwood, plus  Andy Mason being the guide extraordinaire.

Running around Mt Hood v2 with a bunch of speedsters - this photo has Ellie Greenwood, Max King, Steph Howe and  Mike Palichuk. Was fun to do a training run with no less than 3 World Champs (Ellie, Max and Amy Sproston was the 3rd)

Running around Mt Hood v1 in sunny weather with Yassine Dibboun and  Brian Donnelly (taking this shot)

Runs at Smith Rock, this one with an early winter snow for a day

Mountain running up South Sister with Steph Howe and Taryn  Hand

Atop South Sister with Middle and North Sister in the background. It was shorts and T-shirt weather at the summit but cold back in town

Running down Middle Sister on the way back to the fiery parking lot on the day the massive Pole Creek Fire started

From the top of Middle Sister before we spotted the smoke

Rod Bien and myself with no idea we'd spend much of the rest of the day escaping the fire and just managing to get the car out on sketchy fire service back-roads

Starting to speed up when we saw the fire might be somewhere near the car

An ascent of Mt Bachelor looking at most of the Oregon Cascades

Hanging out post-UROC 100k after trashing our legs. L-R: me, Dave Riddle, Jorge Maravilla, ?, Nick Clark, Dave Mackey and Scott McCoubrey. Photo: Bad to the Bone

Pre-dawn running with Eric Senseman at TNFEC Madison 50-miler. Photo: TNFEC

Road marathons - this one was the Sunriver Marathon, close to home

My father-in-law crewing at the Tri Cities Marathon in Washington

Hiking at Crater Lake after the marathon there

Jumping around the day before the Crater Lake Road Marathon

The first road marathon of the year, running along with Devon Yanko (she was still Crosby-Helms at this point) at the Napa Valley Marathon. Photo: Napa Valley Marathon

After the sleep deprivation of  the 216-mile Cascade Lakes Relay on the Footzone Mixed  Team, it's not surprising my world was sideways. Frans Alajoki hands over to JJ Howard

Hanging out after the Mt Hood 50 miler with Pam Smith and Yassine Dibboun. Photo: Long Run Picture Company

In the foothills of the Pyrenees before the Zegama Marathon. L-R: Ian Corless, Mike Wolfe, Nick Clark and Marcus Warner

Skyrunning hospitality pre-Zegama. L-R: Bryon Powell, Sean Meissner and Mike Wolfe

Days before Zegama was the Transvulcania 83km race. Bryon's interviewing Darcy Africa and Nikki Kimball for irunfar

Transvulcania winner, Dakota Jones, swinging Nikki Kimball  round at the party organized by the local Mayor

Running post-Transvulcania on the same island (La Palma). Nick Clark behind me then Dakota Jones. Photo: Joe Grant

UTMB stars Seb Chaigneau and Francois D'Haene running around on La Palma

Sunset at La Palma around Transvulcania

The huge Salomon contingent the day before Transvulcania. A few runners from other sponsors are dotted in there too

More La Palma running. Too many names for me to pick out but Joe Grant's in the foreground

My one UK run of the year at the Northants Ultra 35-miler, 2 miles from where I used to live when I was growing up. Photo: Amy Sharman
Badger Mountain 50k in Washington. The final outing of that particular Elvis suit. Photo: Glenn Tachiyama

Gorge Waterfalls 50k - my first finish of the year after a DNF at Rocky Raccoon. Photo: Glenn Tachiyama, I think

Multnomah Falls along the Gorge Waterfalls course

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

How to train for...Western States 100



This posting continues my irregular articles with tips on how to train for various major world ultras which I've personally run several times. I've been top 10 at Western States nine times (having run two different snow routes and the official course too), with a best time of 15:47. I've also completed the Grand Slam of Ultrarunning which involves four 100-milers in the same summer, starting with Western States.

So I now feel that I've learned enough about the race to be able to give a few useful pointers for anyone planning on running this iconic event. There are things I've learnt along the way that you may find helpful, as have runners who I've coached for the event over the past decade. You can find out more about coaching here.

I'll include posts on other races over time and have already written about how to train for the Marathon des Sables, Flat 100 milers like Rocky Raccoon and Comrades.

What is it?

Western States Endurance Run (WS100 or WSER) in California from Squaw Valley to Auburn is the race that began the concept of 100-mile trail races. The history can be found here but in summary, there was a 100-mile horse race along the Western States trail that had a runner attempt the course in 1974. This captured people's imaginations and it became an event in itself as well as spawning other races to lead to 96 North American 100-milers at the time of writing, plus many others around the world. It's also part of the 'Grand Slam of Ultrarunning' which involves running four 100s over one summer - WS100, Vermont 100, Leadville 100 and Wasatch 100.



For me, the thing that makes Western States so special is the history with a beautiful course through mountains and canyons. It's also incredibly competitive, increasingly so in recent years (in 2012 the time for 10th place overall would have won the race outright almost every other year!) which creates an atmosphere of everyone peaking and not using it as a training run, as can happen at many races. It has approximately 1,500 volunteers to cover almost 400 runners (and their pacers and crews), showing how the running community really gets behind the event.



The race is extremely difficult to get into due to an over-subscribed lottery. However, there are several races within the Montrail Ultracup that offer entry places for the top two men and women who don't already have a guaranteed entry, rolling down to third if required. The top 10 runners from the previous year are given guaranteed entries too. Foreign runners can also get into the race with special consideration given for anyone who could enhance the competitiveness of the event.

What's the race like?
  • 100.2 miles (161.2km) of trails with 22,970ft of descent and 18,090ft of ascent - generally a downhill course that trashes your legs
  • High point of 8,750ft at Emigrant Pass, four miles into the race
  • Fairly non-technical trails as mountain races go so even pure road runners shouldn't find anything too difficult in the footing
  • A real silver buckle for finishers under 24 hours
  • Strict 30 hour cut-off with intermediate cut-offs and a bronze buckle for finishing between 24 and 30 hours
  • Several canyons that can be extremely hot (100F+) in an average year, plus the possibility of snow and very cold conditions in the earlier, higher miles - see the profile below

  • Start is pre-dawn and the leaders just finish before it gets dark but most people run through the dark and the full night
  • Pacers allowed from Foresthill at 62.0 miles
  • Although there are several points to get your feet wet in streams earlier in the race, the main dunking is at the American River crossing at 78.1 miles, although in high water years rafts take the runners and pacers over the water
  • Finish on Placer High School track 
The finish at Placer High track.



How on Earth do you start training for that?
  • This isn't a road race and will be difficult to train for if you can't get into the hills and run a lot on trails
  • The two factors that cause the most issues are the heat and the pounding from the downhills, so these are both things that should be trained for, even though you may get a colder year like 2012:
    • Heat training can include sitting or any sort of exercise in a sauna, ideally from about 2-3 weeks out (most of the heat adaptations occur within about two weeks) but not too close to the race as this is exhausting and draining on the body
    • Long downhills of several miles will help to strengthen your legs, but if that's not available locally then power-hiking with a weight vest can simulate some of the adaptations in your thighs as a second-best option
  • Still include speed work even though your expected race pace will be low - hill sessions aimed at fast up- or downhill running are especially useful
  • Long runs will become more important than for shorter races - races can be ideal for fitting in 50k, 50-mile and 100k training runs but these will tire you out and require some taper and recovery time
  • Back-to-back long runs are excellent training but have to be weighed up against the time it takes to recover; two marathons/50ks on a weekend are particularly good and much less stress on the body than a 50-miler in one day and the race offers big training weekends like over Memorial Day weekend along the actual course
  • Although the first 40 miles are above 5,000ft, altitude is not a major issue compared to some mountain races and coming from sea level will have little disadvantage so altitude training is not necessary
  • Specificity is the key with your training so running trails with decent climbs and descents up to about 10-12% gradient will help - steeper training will make these seem easier (early on, at least) but there's not really any part of the course that's got greater slopes
  • Strength training on the legs is more important than for marathons due to the length and hills, but make the exercises specific to running, not just about building up big leg muscles
  • Core training is more important than for shorter races since poor running form over a full day (or more!) will slow you down a lot and raise the chance of injuries. However, sit-ups and what you may normally think of as core work for getting a six-pack won't be very useful because these don't help your muscles for the specific movements performed when running - as a general rule, exercises performed standing up and challenging your balance (like on one leg) will be most useful.
One of the aid stations along the way.


What mistakes should you avoid doing in training?
  • Bad or inadequate nutrition will slow you dramatically and the effect in a 100-miler is exponentially larger than in a shorter ultra. There're 25 aid stations with a wide variety of food and drinks, making some of the best-stocked aid stations in the US. So don't forget to look at who the sponsors are on the official website to try out their products so you know in advance whether they work for you in long runs or if you'll need to supply a lot of your own food and drinks. Your crew can supply these at multiple points along the course.
  • If you don't train for the specific challenges of the course (that specificity point comes in again) then these will be your undoing
  • Don't just focus on just uphill training as those downhills add up and can force you into a death march to the finish, even if well training, so the more you can do, the better
  • Don't just practice running as you will be doing some power-hiking, guaranteed (unless you break 15 hours). For example, in running sub 16 hours I probably walked up to 10 miles of the total distance, but a strong power-hike can be almost as fast as a jog and can be much more efficient
  • Heat stroke can be a significant risk so it helps a lot to train for the high temperatures, either using time in a sauna or jogging at the hottest part of the day with multiple layers on
  • Practice hydration in your training runs and try to get an idea of which sports' drinks you can stomach best, ideally trying out the brand of drink that currently sponsors the race since this will be available at every aid station even when your crew isn't there. The rate you need to drink at will vary with temperature and effort so doing training runs that simulate the race will give a better idea of the correct rate to drink at, but the feeling of thirst and the frequency and color of your urine (not clear but not darker yellow or brown either) are both good indicators.
  • Don't over-race before the event. It's tempting to try to do too many long runs or races to give you confidence but it's definitely better to turn up a little under-trained than a little over-trained, as the official race booklet advises
Early miles out of Squaw Valley.

Near the top of the first climb.


What about tactics for the race itself?
  • Beware of hypothermia in the early miles. Although the race is known for heat, it can involve cold, wind, rain, snow, hail etc early on - it's the mountains after all. So check the forecast and carry a little too much clothing if unsure as you can always leave it at an aid station or tie it around your waist.
  • Clock-watching and aiming for a sub 24-hour silver buckle can push you too hard, too early and it's better to go at a pace that your body dictates instead of a set schedule. This should lead to a faster finish time anyway and if that time is over 24 hours then you probably aren't in shape for a silver buckle and could DNF by aiming for one as the main target.
  • Related to the last point, like in most ultras, people tend to go out too fast at WS100. It starts with a steep climb and there's no need to burn yourself out at this point. This applies to the entire first half since the course gets easier in terms of terrain after Foresthill at 62.0 miles and if you're in good shape at this point you can run some relatively fast miles and catch up time. This will also be more enjoyable than going too hard, blowing up and death marching in on sections of trail that should be easy to run on.
  • Altitude can be a minor issue in the early stages and it's worth giving it a little respect by not pushing too hard, but that is already sensible as mentioned above. So, the not-going-out-too-fast is important enough to be in three different bullet points.
  • Blisters can also ruin your race. Having changes of socks and/or shoes can help, especially at aid stations after water crossings, but this isn't necessary. A better option is to find socks and shoes that don't cause issues in the first place. The shoes will be very individual, but I'd suggest a good fit with a fair degree of protection from the rocks and that don't allow your feet to slide around much. Socks are worth an investment to not just get the cheapest pair from Walmart and Drymax are the best I've ever tried and are what I use for all of my runs. I had no blisters from the 2012 WS100, although I may lose a toe-nail or two, which can't really be avoided with that much downhilling.
  • Not eating enough can end your race or at least slow you down a lot. Odds are you won't be able to force down enough calories during the race no matter how hard you try (although I can think of a couple of people who virtually manage to eat their own body-weight in an ultra!).
  • Be careful about markings which are generally good but if you stop concentrating or rely on the guy in front paying full attention, you may add on mileage. Every year I've run there have been men at the front who've got temporarily lost because the markings are not always perfect, and a minute of your mind wandering can lead to not seeing a turn.
  • Crews can make or break your race so it helps if they've been to the race before in some capacity, but the important thing is to brief them as well as possible with what you expect, exact directions for where and when to meet you and it's generally up to the runner to tell their crew everything the crew needs to know. I'd generally advise to not rely too heavily on the crew and use them as a bonus, so that if something goes wrong (a flat tire etc), the runner isn't screwed, especially mentally, from the crew not being there.
A well-trained and informed crew helps a lot.


  • Like most ultras, people tend to go out too fast, but Comrades has hot spot prizes for runners who get to various points first and still finish which encourages extra speed. So make sure you have a plan and don’t get carried away as everyone around you goes past you in the first miles.
  • Make sure you have a good idea of where the hills are from the course profile, which can be best understood if you're able to get out on to the course for training weekends, even once. Mentally it helps so much to know how hard and long a climb or descent is.
  • As well as learning about the course profile, it helps to know how far the gaps are between aid stations so you can plan the amount of food and drink you'll need to carry. Writing them out on your arm with their distances included is one option, as is a small, laminated card with them all written down.
  • Take the downhill sections easy, especially early on, as these can trash your quads and lead to walking earlier than you want to. It’s tempting to try to catch up some time but practicing a relaxed downhill stride in advance, with minimal breaking where the legs absorb a lot of the shock, can still allow for good pace on those descents. The course is rarely technical so downhills can be run smoothly and fast. By the end, your quads will be trashed no matter what you do, so the better you can look after them through the day, the quicker your time will be and the more chance of avoiding a DNF.
  • Just before it gets dark it's worth increasing your effort level slightly since you will slow down when the light fades due to the terrain being more difficult to traverse and your brain trying to tell you to take it easy as you've clearly been out longer than it wants.
  • Beware the chair, like in any ultra - if you sit down, you'll find it a lot harder to get going again.
  • Avoid trying anything new on race day. Have your kit, food, drink and everything else tried and tested in your long runs so there are no nasty surprises.
  • Finally, don't forget to smile and have fun as it'll make the day more enjoyable and you'll probably run better too.
You'll get a nice, shiny buckle at the end.

Monday, 25 June 2012

Western States III

Top of the Escarpment at 4 miles; photo by Drymax Socks


Writing up something about the 2012 Western States 100 could be a 10,000 word novella but I'm going to save that version (including swearing and long descriptions about being generally very uncomfortable) in my head.

Bryon Powell's irunfar has covered most of it in minute detail, mainly summarized here so instead I'll give a quick overview of one of the most memorable and inspiring days in trail running history. Admittedly there were a few top runners who either didn't enter or had to miss the starting line, but on paper it looked like the men and women would be racing to new levels of excellence.

After doing the 2010 and 2011 races, both with what were considered to be faster snow course diversions, I was looking forward to the full course. Weather reports suggested it'd be cold and wet early on then not very hot at all later and these proved to be true.

In summary, it started cold with rain then snow, sleet and hail. Winds cooled things down further and it wasn't until getting below 5,000ft for the first time after maybe 40 miles that temperatures became more comfortable. The canyons were mild and the hottest temperatures all day were barely over 70F (around 20C) - way lower than the usual furnace.



A lead pack of six hit the Escarpment summit at four miles and these guys pushed each other all day. After reaching that point a few minutes behind and around fifteenth, I zoomed down the first descents and really enjoyed the lack of snow on the course. I wasn't trying to eat into their lead, but went a little too fast and so had sore thighs from very soon afterwards which groaned at me all day. But thanks to the lead pack (Wolfeman, DBo, Jesus 2, Smokey (see the cigar photos of Nick Clark), Elder Statesman Mackey and the Zeke) getting lost along the still-marked 2011 snow diversions for a few minutes, I was somehow in the lead with Ryan Sandes.

They caught back up, then by Duncan Canyon at 23.8 miles I was with Ryan and they had a small lead. Some walking left me in eighth as they climbed to Robinson Flat, but I went past Zeke who looked rough. I wished him luck and suggested he spend a few mins in the next aid station to recover (he did and then had an amazing surge late on to come in sixth) then powered on in seventh, which I held solo for about eight hours. Annoyingly, the six ahead were together and at each aid station I was told this, so knew that catching one of them meant getting back in the lead.

But by Foresthill at 62.0 miles the group had spread slightly with Timmy leading and powering on to his new, super-human, course record. I was 18 minutes behind him and just behind Nick who supposedly looked rough and would be 'easy to catch' according to the volunteers. He wasn't and his ability to come back from the dead suggested more Jesus-like powers, combined with the beard...maybe that does help (beard thoughts). Or maybe his strength comes from the beard, like Samson. Whatever it is, it's biblical.

With my pacers along to help me out, I hoped to capitalize on the easier running in the course in the last 38. Instead I'd used up my ammunition too early and could only grunt through to the finish, albeit fairly steadily. Mike Wolfe was seen after the river doing a slow walk and I thought he was dropping at Green Gate (79.9 miles) but he battled on like at last year's UTMB and still finished a respectable eighteenth man.

Some miles went by well but I was in more pain than previous years, compensated for by being better trained for the hills and starting the race fresher than 2010 or 2011. All I wanted was to break 16 hours and I'd take whatever position that meant. I needed around 10 minute miles for the last 20 miles and kept pushing through miserable sections, just wanting it to finish. With a couple of miles to go I caught Dylan Bowman who was spent, then kept going with a little sprint around the track at the end, mainly to get it over with faster.

Here's a video of the first 10 men finishing and another of the first 10 women too. Plus Greg Lanctot was kind enough to scream at me while shooting me sprint round Placer High track:



I'd describe it as the hardest day of my life (yes, I've led a sheltered life) but with the consolation that as soon as you stop, much of the pain and effort evaporates. Focusing more on this race in 2012 has helped but there are still a lot of things to work on for next year, as I'm sure there will be for the following year, etc. Much as it felt like hell for most of the day, there's something irresistible about the race, not least the level of competition.

Six of us broke 16 hours when only nine had ever done this before and most had done it on supposedly faster (but hotter) courses. Anyway, irunfar can give you all the stats and full results are here. I was extremely happy with 5th in 15:54 and a third top 10 finish. But hats off to so many people for their speedy running, particularly Timmy and Ellie's ground-breaking course records of 14:46 and 16:47.

Damned good runs by Oregonians too with three in the top 10 men and the same in the top 10 women. Too many great performances to mention but it'll be worth reading all the blog reports and irunfar will link to plenty of them once they've been written. Thanks to everyone who helped to put on the race, help out or just turn up and especially to my pacers Zach Violett and Jeff Caba. Somehow listening to me grunt for several hours didn't put them off the race at all.

Sunday, 10 June 2012

Do Ultra Beards Make You Run Faster?

Nick Clark - definitely bearded


At the end of last year I made a few light-hearted predictions about ultrarunning in 2012, including that ultra beards would go out of fashion. From what I've seen so far this year the men with beards still have beards. But for anyone trying to emulate their achievements, the important question is...do beards make you run faster in the mountains?

Using rigorous scientific methods which I'm unwilling to disclose, I've decided that the secret to success does not lie in some kind of Samson-like ability from not cutting your hair anywhere. Western States and Hardrock will put this to the test in the US but here's a sample comparison for interest's sake:

Bearded:

Tony Krupicka (injured)
Geoff Roes (taking time off to get back his mojo)
Nick Clark (see photo above which I'm posting again - clearly there are some issues)
Joe Grant (calls everything 'douche grade' and wears racing flats to do muddy, technical, Spanish mountain races)
Timothy Olson (seems to be winning a lot of stuff and providing a ray of hope for pogonophiles)

Unbearded:

Kilian Journet and all the Europeans (they seem to do well in general)
Dakota Jones (pretty sure he couldn't grow a grizzly beard yet but this isn't holding him back)
Mike Wolfe (with a name like that you might expect a beard, but it would just get in the way of him Tweeting)
Dave Mackey (Ultrarunner of the Year 2011 with zero beard)
Adam Campbell (on fire, so it's lucky he doesn't have a beard to burn)
Anna Frost (unstoppable and definitely beard-less)

Clearly beards are not benefiting runners in 2012 as much as, say, in 2010. My own accidental experiment with a pathetic beard while I forgot my razor in Chamonix did seem to suggest I was improving...but that could well have been down to training rather than mystical beard-related powers. The beard has gone and I haven't slowed down, so I believe it was either too weak a beard or just didn't help anyway.

I'm also fairly confident that beards don't make women faster. I'm yet to see a woman with a beard win a race, although I'll admit there may be a few further back in the pack.

The predictions in full and how they're panning out:


1. Mike Wardian will win at least one really major trail ultra, finally proving that he can find his way through the woods as well as run fast. It's only mid-season so Mike has at least 30 ultras left this year and I'm confident he'll win plenty.

2. Several people will run under 14 hours for 100 miles on various surfaces and at least a couple will break 13 too. Mike Morton is making this true all by himself with three already in 2012, plus Hal Koerner knocked out a 13:24 at Rocky Raccoon. I think there's still scope for some sub-13h action this year.

3. Western States will be run on the normal course and won't be as fast as the past two years. Looking like a safe bet, but with such a classy field they may well run the fastest full course time to break the 15:40 best by Mike Morton.

4. Some men you've never heard of will win big ultras in the US but you'll have the same names for the women at the front of the top races. Ok, this hasn't really happened yet but it's only the start of the main summer season.

5. China will join the ultra bandwagon, train up some marathon runners and send them to races to make them the 'Salomon' of 2012. These runners will then run away at the finish line and claim asylum. I've heard there's a secret program and these Chinese runners will be at the Olympics then will become British citizens.

6. North Korea will try to copy this 'success' but their runners will run away before the starting gun even goes off. I think they're too messed up to know what the Chinese are up to right now.

7. Races in the Euro area will become very cheap (to the rest of the world) as the currency becomes monopoly money. This is happening to an alarming degree and if Greece leaves the Euro, as it looks like they may, then plan to do some cheap trips to Europe.

8. In the quest for lighter and more minimalist shoes, one company will come up with the idea of injecting shoes with helium, which will lead to hilarious accidents on course as people with squeaky voices limp into aid stations. If anyone does this I'm suing as it's my idea and I'm in America so I'd probably win.

9. Ultra beards will go out of fashion. See above.

10. A tribe from the Amazon will be discovered who run all day and night in Hoka-like shoes and have done for centuries. A book will be written and Scott Jurek will race them. I'm really hoping there's an explorer down in the Amazon who'll find a lost tribe who run all day with dead leopards stuck to their feet and that these large, cushioned shoes allow them to achieve untapped levels of running. If so, I'll let Scott know and he can take a break from his book tour.